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今日上证指数上涨5.20点，收盘报3370.03点，成交量为5867亿元，如下图所示：
上证指数今天先跌后涨，收盘翻红，由于中长期均线依然呈现多头排列，是以我们依然对于后市保持积极乐观的态度不变，而将今天的下跌视为加仓的机会。
在上周五文章推送之后，就有不少读者留言，说股市已经见顶了。而在今天盘中下跌之际，想必又有不少投资者是割肉出局的。但我在《姚尧股市均线学》中说得很清楚，判断趋势不是看某一天，或某几天的股价涨跌，而是看均线的运行方向。当均线向上移动时，即便股价短期内有所下跌，之后也会顺着趋势的力量继续上涨，除非股价持续下跌，以至于扭转了均线的运行方向。
因此，只要中长期均线呈现多头排列，我们就是对市场持积极乐观态度。至于别人在短期下跌之后，是会担忧恐慌，还是消极抱怨，这都不是左右我们分析决策的关键因素。
3月18日，美国副总统万斯在美国活力峰会上做了一个时长约24分钟的演讲。我认为，这个演讲非常重要，其重要性丝毫不亚于他一个月前在慕尼黑安全会议上的讲话。只是，国际社会似乎对此重视不够，中文媒体更是鲜有报道。为此，我们将在多篇文章中予以介绍和点评。今天，我们就只说万斯演讲中提及的一个故事：
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I think the populists, when they look at the future, and when they compare it to what's happened in the past, I think a lot of them see alienation of workers from their jobs, from their communities, from their sense of solidarity. You see the alienation of people from their sense of purpose. And importantly, they see a leadership class that believes welfare can replace a job and an application on a phone can replace a sense of purpose.
Now, I remember a Silicon Valley dinner in particular, back when I was in -- in my tech days, where my wife and I were sitting around talking to some of the leaders of -- of the important technology firms of the United States. And this was probably in 2016 or 2017. And I was talking about my real worry that we were heading in a direction where America could no longer support middle-class families working on middle-class wages. And importantly, that even if you had enough economic dynamism to provide the wealth to ensure those people could, you know, afford to buy a house and afford their food and so forth, that even if you replace the financial element of their jobs, you would destroy something that was dignified and purposeful about work itself.
And I remember one of the tech CEOs who was there that -- you know, CEO -- you would know his name if I mentioned it. He was the CEO of a -- of a multibillion-dollar company. He said, "Well, I'm actually not worried about the loss of purpose when people lose their jobs." And I said, "Okay, well, what do you think is going to replace that sense of purpose?" And he said, "Digital, fully immersive gaming." （Laughter.）
And then my -- my wife texted me underneath the table and said, "We have to get the hell out of here. These people are effing crazy." （Laughter.）
Now, I don't think that, of course, that CEO's views are representative of -- of most people in this room, but when I think about the -- the -- a lot of the workers, based on what they've seen in the past, are very worried about the future, because, frankly, their leadership has failed to serve them.
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万斯说，他在2016年还是2017年的时候，曾经和他的妻子共同参加一场在硅谷的晚宴，与一些美国重要科技公司的领导交谈。当时，万斯非常担心，美国工人正在远离工作，远离社区，远离团结意识，他们的生活正在缺乏目标感。而这种目标感，不是有钱就能满足的，不是能买得起房子，买得起食物就能满足的。人需要工作，因为工作本身能给人提供尊严感和目标感。
但是，一位市值数十亿美元公司的CEO对此却不以为然，说根本就不用担心。于是，万斯问他：“你认为，什么可以取代这种目标感呢？”
对方回答：“数字化的、完全沉浸式的游戏。”
这时候，万斯的妻子给万斯发短信，说：“我们得赶紧离开这里，这帮人简直都疯了！”
对此，万斯的结论是，很多员工都对未来感到非常担忧，而他们的领导没有为他们提供好的服务。
而当我们读懂了万斯所讲的这个故事，就能够明白，为什么拜登政府创造了很好的经济数字，创造了很好的股票市值，却依然在大选中遭遇惨败？按照拜登政府的施政蓝图，是由高科技公司创造高价值，然后再在这些高价值中分出一部分来养活中低阶层，让他们有面包可以吃，吃完面包就去打游戏。可对于绝大多数的美国民众而言，他们普遍觉得不快乐。他们的确是饿不死，但不知道活着的意义，因为他们没有工作，不知道自己的价值所在。
而这，就是在传统意义上支持左派民主党的劳工阶层，现在都开始支持右派共和党的原因所在，亦是特朗普政府一定要推动制造业回流的原因所在。惟其如此，共和党才能持续获得美国劳工的选票。
因此，在过去一个月间，我们持续建议读者关注有色的投资机会。
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发表于 2025-3-24 19:51:52
