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今日上证指数下跌0.05点，收盘报3369.98点，成交量为5164亿元，如下图所示：
上证指数今天窄幅震荡，由于中长期均线依然呈现多头排列，是以我们依然对于后市保持积极乐观的态度不变。
今天，我们继续探讨万斯在美国活力峰会上的演讲。先上原文：
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And what I'd propose is that each group -- our workers, the populace on the one hand, the tech optimists on the other -- have been failed by this government -- not just the government of the last administration but the government, in some ways, of the last 40 years, because there were two conceits that our leadership class had when it came to globalization.
The first is assuming that we can separate the making of things from the design of things. The idea of globalization was that rich countries would move further up the value chain, while the poor countries made the simpler things.
You would open an iPhone box, and it would say "designed in Cupertino, California." Now, the implication, of course, is that it would be manufactured in Shenzhen or somewhere else. And, yeah, some people might lose their jobs in manufacturing, but they could learn to design or, to use a very popular phrase, learn to code.
But I think we got it wrong. It turns out that the geographies that do the manufacturing get awfully good at the designing of things. There are network effects, as you all well understand. The firms that design products work with firms that manufacture. They share intellectual property. They share best practices. And they even sometimes share critical employees.
Now, we assumed that other nations would always trail us in the value chain, but it turns out that as they got better at the low end of the value chain, they also started catching up on the higher end. We were squeezed from both ends. Now, that was the first conceit of globalization.
I think the second is that cheap labor is fundamentally a crutch, and it's a crutch that inhibits innovation. I might even say that it's a drug that too many American firms got addicted to. Now, if you can make a product more cheaply, it's far too easy to do that rather than to innovate.
And whether we were offshoring factories to cheap labor economies or importing cheap labor through our immigration system, cheap labor became the drug of Western economies.
And I'd say that if you look in nearly every country, from Canada to the UK, that imported large amounts of cheap labor, you've seen productivity stagnate. I don't think that's -- that's not a total happenstance. I think that the connection is very direct.
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在这部分内容中，万斯认为美国各个群体的民众，都被政府辜负了。这个政府，不是指上一届的拜登政府，而是说过去四十年来的历届政府。为什么呢？万斯说，这是因为过去四十年来，美国的领导阶层存在两个自负的妄想（conceit）。
第一个自负的妄想，是假设可以将制造和设计分离。万斯说，按照全球化的理念，就是富裕的国家向价值链的更高端移动，而贫穷的国家制造更简单的东西。
譬如说，你打开一个iPhone手机的盒子，那上面会写着“设计于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺”。这同时就意味着，这个手机不是在加州制造的，不是在美国制造的，而是在深圳或者其它地方制造的。于是，就有一些美国人因此失去了制造的工作。当然，你可以让他们去学习设计，或者用当下流行的话说，就是去学习编程。
但是，万斯接着说：“我认为我们错了。事实证明，那些从事制造的地区，在设计方面也变得非常擅长。基于众所周知的网络效应，设计公司与制造公司通过合作，可以共享知识产权，共享最佳实践，甚至有时候还可以共享最佳员工。我们曾经以为，其他国家会在价值链上永远落后我们。但事实证明，随着他们在低端变得越来越擅长，现在也开始在高端迎头赶上。我们在高低两端都受到了挤压。这是关于全球化的第一个自负的妄想。”
话说到这里，就已经很直白了，就是美国人在后悔自己看错了中国。他们原以为，中国人会接受美国人安排的低端制造的角色，没想到中国人居然也要搞高端制造，而且在高端制造给美国人带来了极大的压力。
行文至此，我情不自禁地举双手双脚为《中国制造2025》点赞！
万斯所说的第二个自负的妄想，是廉价劳动力。他认为，廉价劳动力本质上就是一根拐杖，而且是抑制创新的拐杖。甚至还可以说，是一种让太多美国公司上瘾的药物。因此，当公司可以通过廉价劳动力而制造出便宜的产品时，就没有动力去创新了。
因此，万斯说：“无论我们是将工厂外包给廉价劳动力的经济体，还是通过我们的移民系统引入廉价劳动力，这些廉价劳动力都成了西方经济的‘毒品’。你看那些凡是大量引入廉价劳动力的国家，从加拿大到英国，都存在生产力停滞不前的问题。我认为，这并不是偶然的，两者之间的联系非常直接。”
正是基于对以上两种自负的妄想的批判，万斯展开解释了特朗普政府的三大经济政策。
第一，为什么特朗普政府强调关税政策？因为美国需要通过关税来保护美国制造。
他的原文是：“Now, first, President Trump is starting with and is dead serious about rearranging our trade and tariff regime internationally.We believe that tariffs are a necessary tool to protect our jobs and our industries from other countries, as well as the labor value of our workers in a globalized market. ”
翻译成中文的意思是说：首先，特朗普总统正在着手，且非常认真地重新安排我们在国际上的贸易和关税制度。我们相信，关税既是保护我们的就业和产业免遭其他国家侵害的必要工具，也是保护我们的工人在全球化市场中的劳动价值的必要工具。
第二，为什么特朗普政府驱离非法移民？因为美国不需要非法移民作为廉价劳动力。
他的原文是：“Now, second -- second, all of this is why the president is approaching the issue of illegal immigration as aggressively as he has, because he knows that cheap labor cannot be used as a substitute for the productivity gains that come with economic innovation.
And so, we've cracked down on illegal immigration at the border, where the results speak for themselves. Last month, migrant crossings were down 94 percent to their lowest number all time, and that happened just in two months of serious border enforcement.
Thanks to President Trump's leadership, last month, for the first time in over a year, the majority of job gains went to American citizens born on U.S. soil, and that's important. For the first time in over a year, the majority of job creation actually went to American citizens.”
翻译成中文的意思是说：其次，所有的这一切，就是为什么总统在处理非法移民问题上采取如此强硬态度的原因。因为他明白，廉价劳动力不能取代经济创新在生产力提升中的作用。
因此，我们在边境对非法移民进行了严厉的打击，成果也是显而易见。上个月，非法越境的人数下降了94%，达到了历史最低水平。而这一切，是在边境严格执法后仅两个月就取得的成效。
幸亏有了特朗普总统的领导，就在上个月，是一年多来首次出现，大部分新增就业都落在了美国本土出生的公民身上，而这一点非常重要。这是一年多以来首次出现，大部分新增就业实际上都给了美国公民。
第三，为什么特朗普政府青睐低价能源？因为美国需要降低制造业的生产成本。
他的原话是：“Third, this administration is focused on reducing our input costs for our manufacturers and for everybody else. Achieving energy abundance -- and I know Doug Burgum was here earlier; will be here later -- is top of mind. Because when we look at some of the most exciting applications of new technologies, we realize it's going to take a lot of power to keep them running.
And we're -- we're thrilled to have our friends from the United Arab Emirates, a number of the business leaders and government leaders, in town this week for meetings with our government. And one of the things they consistently hammer upon -- it's something that unfortunately too few of our European allies tend to get -- is that if you want to lead in artificial intelligence, you have got to be leading in energy production.
So, we are going to set the pace there, and we are going to lead from the front.
Now, we are already seeing, the good news is, signs of progress, even just a couple of months in. Gas and diesel prices are dropping. The cost of a barrel of U.S. crude is way down. And last Wednesday, the administration took major steps to make energy even cheaper and liberate our companies from stifling environmental regulations.”
翻译成中文的意思是说：第三，本届政府致力于降低制造商和其他所有人的投入成本。实现能源富足——我知道道格·伯古姆之前来过这里，之后还会再来——这是我们的首要问题。因为当我们看到新技术的一些最令人兴奋的应用时，我们意识到需要有大量的动力才能使它们保持运行。
我们很高兴，本周邀请到了来自阿拉伯联合酋长国的朋友，包括商业领袖和政府领导人，来到这里与我们的政府举行会晤。他们一直在强调一件事，即如果你想在人工智能领域领先，就必须在能源生产领域领先。可惜的是，在我们的欧洲盟友中，能理解这一点的人实在是太少了。
因此，我们将在这一领域设定节奏，且将保持领先。
好消息是，我们现在已经能够看到一些进步的迹象，尽管只是刚过去几个月。汽油和柴油的价格正在下降，每桶美国原油的价格正在大幅下跌。上周三，政府采取了重大措施，旨在进一步降低能源价格，并且让我们的企业从那些令人窒息的环境法规中解放出来。
最后做个总结，作为一个民族主义者，我主观上并不希望特朗普政府的经济政策成功。作为一个历史学者，我客观上也不认为特朗普政府的经济政策能够成功。但是，特朗普毕竟是刚就任的美国总统，他手中掌握巨大的权力，可以调动巨大的资源。因此，作为一个金融投资者，我们不介意跟随特朗普的政策脉动，顺着其所调动资源的价格涨跌而买入卖出。
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发表于 2025-3-25 21:23:07
